* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 82 85 88 87 85 77 70 63 56 50 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 82 85 88 87 85 77 70 63 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 82 84 85 82 78 72 66 60 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 11 11 12 7 8 6 4 4 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 33 30 40 41 48 68 3 3 315 308 245 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 140 135 129 129 123 117 117 112 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 66 67 68 65 62 57 57 53 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 28 30 29 30 28 27 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 49 58 59 62 63 64 80 85 78 80 87 92 70 200 MB DIV 46 60 53 46 49 19 9 -36 -22 -21 13 -2 -32 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -7 -1 -6 -1 1 6 0 6 LAND (KM) 923 971 1034 1109 1173 1313 1466 1602 1726 1862 2020 2187 1964 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.3 116.5 117.8 119.0 121.5 123.7 125.7 127.6 129.5 131.7 133.8 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 13 15 11 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 5. 4. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 17. 15. 7. 0. -7. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.29 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 345.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.41 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 30.4% 22.8% 17.9% 15.3% 15.6% 10.2% Logistic: 6.3% 15.4% 7.2% 5.1% 2.9% 1.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 11.2% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 19.0% 11.5% 8.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##