* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 33 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 33 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 34 29 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 13 10 10 17 31 33 38 42 46 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 1 0 2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 244 262 281 302 323 298 282 279 284 283 272 265 257 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 104 106 107 108 113 115 116 116 117 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 47 45 45 42 42 39 41 44 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 21 17 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 43 41 41 35 27 39 46 33 38 34 32 200 MB DIV 14 7 9 10 -5 -13 -13 -15 -7 0 -19 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 11 15 16 13 4 3 8 6 2 1 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 2050 1940 1832 1719 1607 1367 1120 884 692 544 424 341 282 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.3 137.3 138.4 139.5 141.9 144.4 146.9 149.2 151.3 153.2 155.6 158.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -25. -30. -36. -44. -50. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 135.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 290.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.83 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.7% 4.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##