* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 80 83 84 84 82 76 72 65 60 55 V (KT) LAND 70 73 77 80 83 84 84 82 76 72 65 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 76 79 80 80 79 77 73 68 62 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 10 9 8 11 7 7 4 5 2 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 37 36 23 26 33 48 56 349 338 337 273 274 243 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.6 25.8 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 137 133 129 130 121 117 116 112 109 114 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 68 69 66 61 58 57 57 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 28 28 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 60 60 73 86 79 87 90 114 108 104 200 MB DIV 63 52 50 47 27 28 -15 -18 1 16 14 -4 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -7 -5 -2 -3 -2 3 0 0 10 LAND (KM) 965 1022 1090 1164 1229 1367 1517 1645 1780 1921 2066 2113 1815 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.2 117.4 118.7 120.0 122.3 124.3 126.3 128.3 130.3 132.3 134.7 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 14 13 7 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 6. 2. -5. -10. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.27 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.85 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 349.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.41 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 28.4% 21.1% 16.2% 13.9% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 13.5% 5.9% 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 15.6% 9.7% 6.9% 5.5% 5.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##