* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 37 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 37 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 39 36 31 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 10 11 23 39 43 41 49 57 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 4 5 0 -2 0 0 -6 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 266 284 289 302 293 269 272 266 269 271 265 261 259 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 104 105 105 112 111 108 107 109 111 106 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 58 54 50 48 48 46 45 43 41 44 45 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 21 20 17 16 16 16 15 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 35 37 29 33 39 51 46 45 36 30 26 200 MB DIV 6 5 12 1 -5 1 -2 -6 14 16 -5 5 -5 700-850 TADV 13 13 13 8 5 10 7 9 12 9 8 7 -1 LAND (KM) 1955 1853 1744 1630 1501 1219 1008 867 759 689 685 686 690 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.1 138.2 139.4 140.8 143.9 146.5 148.8 150.6 152.3 154.0 156.2 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 11 10 8 8 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -9. -19. -30. -41. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -31. -39. -49. -58. -63. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.5 136.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.43 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 290.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.83 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.0% 4.7% 2.7% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##