* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 74 75 77 76 72 70 66 61 57 53 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 74 75 77 76 72 70 66 61 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 71 71 71 70 68 65 63 61 58 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 8 12 7 6 6 5 3 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 34 29 26 39 53 22 2 350 353 282 274 241 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 137 132 130 129 125 119 117 114 112 110 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 69 67 63 58 58 55 57 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 28 29 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 58 59 63 74 77 74 77 84 98 90 94 200 MB DIV 43 47 51 23 18 25 -36 -7 -4 18 10 1 0 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -7 -8 0 -3 -2 -1 2 0 1 8 LAND (KM) 1028 1097 1164 1223 1291 1425 1576 1695 1820 1948 2081 2115 1830 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.5 118.7 119.9 121.1 123.2 125.2 127.1 128.9 130.7 132.4 134.7 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 11 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.8 116.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.25 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 358.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.40 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 21.7% 16.1% 12.6% 9.8% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.8% 5.8% 4.5% 3.4% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##