* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 82 83 85 83 78 74 70 64 58 55 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 82 83 85 83 78 74 70 64 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 79 79 77 75 72 70 67 64 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 10 10 7 5 5 5 3 4 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 35 23 18 37 40 70 15 351 351 354 291 281 275 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 132 131 131 131 124 120 120 117 114 114 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 68 68 66 61 59 56 56 55 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 27 27 28 28 27 28 28 28 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 54 59 74 85 79 89 84 104 91 99 85 200 MB DIV 41 50 37 28 30 -4 -19 5 21 12 -8 -13 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -7 -4 -2 -1 -2 2 0 0 5 6 LAND (KM) 1113 1181 1238 1303 1374 1524 1662 1780 1906 2049 2220 1994 1748 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.8 120.0 121.1 122.2 124.3 126.2 127.9 129.6 131.5 133.7 135.9 138.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 4 4 4 2 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 8. 3. -1. -5. -11. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 117.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.19 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.89 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 387.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 25.2% 18.4% 14.0% 11.8% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 8.9% 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 12.1% 7.7% 5.3% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##