* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 36 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 36 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 38 35 31 27 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 9 8 21 24 31 35 44 44 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 6 6 1 1 2 1 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 303 317 328 316 290 278 265 272 278 268 258 250 248 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 108 111 114 114 114 115 119 118 116 121 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 45 43 43 43 40 41 43 42 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 38 38 33 29 40 39 39 46 48 46 28 200 MB DIV 5 -8 -19 -20 -10 -10 -2 4 10 -5 5 -1 -17 700-850 TADV 15 5 0 1 5 6 8 8 11 9 15 3 11 LAND (KM) 1712 1587 1464 1339 1216 979 802 643 498 381 338 337 511 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.7 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.5 139.8 141.0 142.3 143.5 146.0 148.2 150.3 152.4 154.7 157.4 160.1 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 12 13 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -20. -28. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -23. -29. -37. -45. -50. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.7 138.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.21 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 307.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.76 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.74 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.1% 8.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##