* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 87 87 86 81 77 72 66 61 56 51 V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 87 87 86 81 77 72 66 61 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 85 85 84 80 75 71 66 61 58 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 10 8 10 4 7 5 2 2 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 0 3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 33 35 31 33 41 17 358 8 360 279 244 280 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.8 25.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 131 130 129 126 120 117 117 114 111 117 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 69 67 65 61 60 57 57 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 29 28 29 28 28 27 26 27 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 59 72 74 78 72 73 92 100 100 93 83 200 MB DIV 41 31 27 39 44 -26 -20 -20 18 4 -8 10 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -3 0 0 1 -2 3 8 7 LAND (KM) 1186 1228 1278 1332 1391 1547 1628 1765 1953 2128 2097 1853 1602 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.7 122.7 124.8 126.3 128.2 130.6 132.8 134.9 137.2 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 10 11 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 6 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.9 118.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.11 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 412.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.32 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 23.0% 17.5% 13.9% 11.1% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 9.1% 6.7% 5.0% 3.9% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##