* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 9 13 21 27 34 41 45 47 51 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 9 7 2 0 1 2 4 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 317 321 320 296 276 278 268 275 267 260 258 243 242 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 107 109 112 115 116 116 118 118 119 118 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 47 44 44 43 42 40 39 39 41 38 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 17 16 16 16 18 16 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 34 33 25 26 33 46 47 49 52 54 45 44 200 MB DIV -4 -17 -16 -16 -21 -8 -10 11 -7 -9 13 -1 11 700-850 TADV 8 1 2 5 7 5 3 8 8 10 7 6 3 LAND (KM) 1602 1481 1362 1241 1120 894 715 560 417 354 271 338 569 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.5 25.0 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.8 142.0 143.2 144.4 146.8 149.0 151.3 153.7 156.0 158.4 160.9 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -14. -24. -32. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -36. -46. -51. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 139.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##