* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 80 81 77 74 70 64 60 56 51 47 V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 80 81 77 74 70 64 60 56 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 80 79 77 73 68 64 60 57 54 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 7 7 6 5 5 4 1 3 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 3 4 6 0 2 SHEAR DIR 23 31 29 39 56 47 4 360 20 353 195 237 241 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 25.2 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 130 129 124 118 116 113 111 116 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 67 65 62 59 58 55 53 54 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 28 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 55 58 63 69 79 77 83 85 111 100 104 88 85 200 MB DIV 30 30 37 35 11 -16 -2 -3 -13 -8 5 5 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 3 6 8 LAND (KM) 1232 1281 1336 1390 1450 1588 1695 1822 2001 2196 1973 1709 1443 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.5 121.5 122.5 123.5 125.5 127.2 129.1 131.4 133.7 136.1 138.6 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 119.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.10 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 409.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.32 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 18.2% 14.1% 11.5% 8.3% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.6% 4.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##