* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 16 21 25 32 33 47 45 46 42 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 11 9 5 0 0 6 0 2 -5 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 322 322 288 278 283 268 262 272 259 254 248 240 278 SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.1 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 109 112 114 115 114 115 117 118 115 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -55.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 43 42 42 40 39 38 39 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 27 27 28 39 46 45 48 46 50 49 43 200 MB DIV -21 -11 -12 -16 -18 5 4 17 -13 4 4 13 19 700-850 TADV 0 1 7 9 7 5 4 9 7 10 9 11 10 LAND (KM) 1482 1358 1236 1117 1001 822 669 528 425 365 344 492 733 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.5 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.3 26.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.8 142.1 143.3 144.5 145.7 147.8 149.9 152.1 154.4 156.8 159.5 162.1 164.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -19. -30. -39. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26. -35. -45. -51. -51. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 140.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##