* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 85 84 79 72 67 63 56 51 46 44 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 85 84 79 72 67 63 56 51 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 84 82 80 73 66 61 58 53 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 6 5 3 3 1 3 4 10 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 -3 1 -1 1 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 33 46 30 53 33 22 27 283 306 258 252 274 260 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 126 124 119 113 112 108 105 109 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 67 64 60 58 54 55 52 55 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 28 27 25 25 26 24 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 52 59 60 72 71 76 75 85 88 91 89 71 77 200 MB DIV 33 38 31 24 24 -10 -27 12 -6 -7 2 -17 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 -3 -2 0 0 6 -1 0 6 6 3 LAND (KM) 1245 1287 1336 1396 1461 1552 1665 1806 1982 2170 1939 1677 1406 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.1 122.1 123.1 124.1 125.7 127.5 129.5 131.7 134.0 136.3 138.8 141.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -18. -22. -29. -34. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.3 120.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 402.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.33 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 18.3% 13.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.0% 5.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##