* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 18 23 25 28 34 32 44 43 42 41 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 5 2 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 322 286 274 282 278 257 252 256 253 250 249 243 237 SST (C) 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 112 114 114 114 113 115 118 116 113 116 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.5 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 43 42 40 40 38 40 39 42 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 16 14 13 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 27 26 34 44 39 46 44 48 46 40 34 200 MB DIV -6 -7 -20 -21 -9 1 -5 17 11 5 2 9 31 700-850 TADV 2 7 9 7 6 3 6 5 9 2 5 7 14 LAND (KM) 1364 1247 1132 1029 929 773 657 517 426 370 428 612 858 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.4 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.0 143.2 144.4 145.5 146.6 148.6 150.6 152.8 155.2 157.7 160.3 163.1 165.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -21. -33. -41. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. -21. -33. -42. -49. -51. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 142.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##