* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 85 83 76 71 66 62 57 52 46 43 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 85 83 76 71 66 62 57 52 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 84 82 79 71 65 61 58 55 51 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 5 3 3 1 2 5 7 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 43 68 63 32 63 74 98 42 226 237 242 230 250 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 126 123 117 114 112 108 109 115 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 59 55 53 50 52 48 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 28 28 26 25 25 25 26 25 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 63 69 72 84 80 103 97 114 99 97 90 200 MB DIV 31 23 12 26 22 -12 -9 4 -10 1 -1 -1 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 1 0 4 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 1283 1336 1393 1451 1507 1604 1744 1904 2079 2047 1785 1523 1262 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.0 122.9 123.8 124.7 126.4 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.3 137.8 140.3 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -14. -19. -23. -28. -33. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.6 121.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.01 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 416.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.9% 13.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 6.3% 5.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##