* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 89 85 79 73 66 58 53 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 89 85 79 73 66 58 53 46 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 88 84 79 70 63 57 52 47 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 5 1 2 4 8 11 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 3 3 -4 0 -1 1 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 79 81 60 84 73 48 176 287 221 216 250 232 242 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 120 114 112 108 105 108 112 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 65 62 59 55 54 50 53 49 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 27 25 25 25 25 23 23 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 62 63 73 75 85 87 84 89 74 66 73 200 MB DIV 26 13 17 8 8 -9 6 8 -8 10 -3 -4 2 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 6 0 1 7 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 1297 1347 1400 1464 1509 1618 1756 1932 2134 1959 1695 1433 1173 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.9 19.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.6 123.4 124.2 125.1 126.9 128.9 131.2 133.6 136.1 138.6 141.1 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -24. -32. -37. -44. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.1 121.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 455.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 21 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##