* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 28 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 28 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 27 25 27 34 35 41 41 43 44 37 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 2 1 0 0 4 5 -1 -3 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 282 288 280 267 256 251 259 251 252 249 241 237 231 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.5 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 116 116 116 117 119 118 118 119 112 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.9 -56.1 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 40 39 39 37 40 40 43 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 15 18 17 15 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 30 39 42 48 56 53 50 54 43 35 34 200 MB DIV -21 -28 -7 -1 -7 11 33 -2 -2 7 4 32 15 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 6 4 6 7 7 3 7 3 13 17 LAND (KM) 1096 986 879 780 689 530 396 333 278 362 592 853 1112 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.2 26.0 26.9 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.9 147.0 148.2 149.3 151.6 153.9 156.2 158.5 161.0 163.7 166.3 168.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -15. -28. -39. -48. -51. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -15. -28. -37. -44. -46. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 144.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 230.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##