* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 78 72 65 57 49 44 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 78 72 65 57 49 44 38 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 83 78 73 64 57 50 45 41 37 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 1 2 3 3 3 6 12 9 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 1 0 -3 1 0 2 0 3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 96 42 100 207 65 147 247 276 206 244 260 250 251 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.2 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 120 117 114 111 109 105 104 108 112 113 114 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 59 58 53 51 50 49 48 46 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 26 24 26 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 66 68 73 82 75 100 86 92 76 77 53 62 200 MB DIV 18 17 19 18 9 -9 24 -6 4 7 -1 -1 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 3 -2 6 6 3 4 1 LAND (KM) 1355 1418 1475 1515 1557 1674 1845 2020 2106 1863 1601 1371 1141 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.1 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.7 124.6 125.3 126.1 127.9 130.2 132.4 134.7 137.0 139.5 141.7 143.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -12. -18. -25. -33. -41. -46. -52. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.4 122.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 518.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##