* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 32 32 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 32 32 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 24 27 29 34 44 45 49 49 36 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 0 0 0 7 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 291 282 270 258 250 243 242 244 254 249 255 257 314 SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.0 22.8 21.8 21.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 115 115 115 114 111 111 104 92 83 82 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -56.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 41 41 40 40 40 40 40 45 49 49 48 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 18 16 14 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 41 43 44 52 52 38 21 3 -24 -58 -78 200 MB DIV -28 -6 1 4 4 32 37 11 -1 4 -15 -11 -10 700-850 TADV 4 5 6 5 5 6 10 5 4 10 10 7 4 LAND (KM) 968 846 747 689 643 628 662 712 763 845 1084 1438 1854 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 23.6 25.0 26.7 28.3 29.8 31.7 33.8 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.3 148.4 149.1 149.7 150.5 151.4 153.1 155.8 158.8 162.1 166.1 171.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 5 7 10 13 15 16 18 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -27. -41. -53. -57. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -12. -24. -35. -44. -46. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 146.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##