* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 83 78 74 66 58 49 43 35 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 90 88 83 78 74 66 58 49 43 35 30 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 82 76 70 60 51 45 40 36 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 5 4 4 1 4 10 13 14 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 62 133 164 158 143 191 183 215 227 254 270 271 258 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.3 23.9 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 119 114 110 109 106 102 103 108 114 115 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 59 59 54 54 50 53 49 48 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 24 24 25 25 24 22 22 21 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 68 75 75 81 85 82 85 71 74 64 73 200 MB DIV 10 4 1 0 0 15 16 -13 3 -2 2 -1 6 700-850 TADV -2 2 1 0 -1 4 -1 1 3 3 5 5 0 LAND (KM) 1402 1455 1493 1534 1580 1712 1872 2051 2040 1799 1548 1277 1007 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.3 125.1 126.0 126.8 128.7 130.8 133.0 135.3 137.6 140.0 142.6 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. -37. -39. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -16. -24. -32. -41. -47. -55. -60. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.7 123.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 502.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##