* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 92 85 80 68 59 48 40 33 28 24 22 V (KT) LAND 100 98 92 85 80 68 59 48 40 33 28 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 90 82 75 63 53 46 41 36 32 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 5 1 3 8 13 9 13 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 -1 3 -2 1 0 4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 134 164 175 151 166 170 154 191 234 251 251 250 240 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 114 110 110 109 106 103 107 112 115 116 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 59 58 56 54 52 50 50 47 46 41 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 23 24 24 23 21 21 20 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 72 73 70 86 79 88 76 85 62 69 61 200 MB DIV -12 -8 -5 -1 -1 22 0 -5 0 -3 -3 -20 -6 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 4 4 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1468 1507 1550 1603 1660 1813 1975 2158 1904 1653 1402 1143 877 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.8 19.9 19.7 19.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.3 126.1 127.0 127.9 129.9 131.9 134.2 136.6 139.0 141.4 143.9 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -32. -39. -44. -47. -49. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -20. -32. -41. -52. -60. -67. -72. -76. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.9 124.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 631.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##