* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 33 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 33 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 33 37 36 38 41 44 47 46 36 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -2 -1 4 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 272 259 251 244 243 251 254 259 247 249 249 268 65 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.2 23.4 22.5 22.2 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 112 111 110 112 113 106 98 89 87 92 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 -55.8 -56.2 -56.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 40 39 41 44 47 49 49 46 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 15 16 18 16 14 13 13 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 41 47 54 49 46 33 23 6 -10 -31 -42 200 MB DIV -4 1 11 27 39 32 5 -8 -4 -8 -21 -4 -18 700-850 TADV 5 4 5 6 5 6 5 2 6 5 8 7 5 LAND (KM) 822 765 715 687 672 647 653 643 745 975 1289 1647 2022 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.6 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.5 32.1 33.3 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.7 149.5 150.2 150.9 152.4 154.6 157.3 160.0 162.8 166.4 170.7 175.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 14 16 19 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -19. -36. -51. -61. -61. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. -3. -13. -25. -37. -42. -43. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 147.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 248.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##