* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 87 81 77 68 58 53 43 37 33 30 27 V (KT) LAND 95 91 87 81 77 68 58 53 43 37 33 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 84 77 71 59 52 46 41 36 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 5 4 3 3 8 12 11 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 159 180 141 168 188 135 176 219 250 247 263 235 244 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 111 110 111 108 105 105 110 114 116 117 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 53 53 53 49 50 48 47 44 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 22 20 19 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 70 68 77 84 87 85 73 73 65 59 45 200 MB DIV -21 -11 -3 4 19 24 7 -3 -11 2 -11 -20 -18 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 4 4 0 4 4 2 4 3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1514 1572 1634 1694 1757 1917 2097 2032 1789 1549 1320 1061 797 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.4 19.8 19.8 19.3 18.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.1 129.0 131.1 133.2 135.4 137.7 140.0 142.2 144.7 147.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -13. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -18. -27. -37. -42. -52. -58. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.1 125.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 629.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 39 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##