* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 36 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 36 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 30 26 23 21 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 36 38 35 37 39 41 40 41 43 26 6 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 2 3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 250 246 252 257 259 257 254 244 244 241 232 74 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.1 24.2 24.0 23.4 23.3 23.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 112 112 113 115 115 106 105 99 98 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -56.0 -56.2 -56.8 -56.1 -56.5 -56.3 -56.4 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 39 37 41 44 46 46 49 48 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 16 16 14 13 13 13 15 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 41 47 49 43 42 32 21 19 20 17 6 200 MB DIV -4 6 18 26 48 2 -14 0 -1 -3 -12 0 -18 700-850 TADV 4 6 6 6 3 4 3 3 0 0 7 30 8 LAND (KM) 725 658 622 580 558 526 506 544 740 1038 1365 1689 2020 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.1 27.1 28.4 29.9 30.9 31.5 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.1 150.2 151.1 151.9 152.7 154.4 156.7 159.4 162.3 165.5 169.3 173.1 176.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 10 12 14 15 17 18 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -21. -35. -49. -56. -53. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -6. -18. -28. -37. -39. -35. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.3 149.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 296.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##