* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 71 67 58 52 44 39 32 28 24 20 V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 71 67 58 52 44 39 32 28 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 69 64 55 50 44 39 34 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 4 2 4 5 11 10 15 13 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 0 -3 5 1 6 0 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 204 152 166 184 158 218 228 245 252 246 258 249 248 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 112 111 110 108 105 110 114 114 115 120 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 52 53 49 52 48 47 45 43 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 73 67 64 75 86 75 91 72 80 66 62 52 40 200 MB DIV -9 0 -3 13 29 25 12 -12 -1 -1 -25 -16 -44 700-850 TADV -1 0 5 4 1 1 4 2 7 2 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1573 1626 1682 1757 1835 2002 2171 1906 1643 1402 1206 940 650 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.7 19.2 18.6 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.1 127.9 129.0 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.6 139.1 141.4 143.3 145.9 148.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -26. -31. -35. -37. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -8. -7. -11. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -23. -32. -38. -46. -51. -58. -62. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 126.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 611.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##