* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 43 42 39 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 43 42 39 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 41 36 32 29 26 25 24 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 38 35 37 40 44 41 43 44 37 10 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 4 -2 -3 -1 1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 251 245 252 255 257 254 262 249 249 241 259 47 26 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.2 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.2 23.6 24.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 112 113 114 116 109 104 99 98 102 114 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -56.4 -56.4 -56.0 -56.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 37 38 37 37 41 44 45 47 48 47 45 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 16 14 13 13 13 15 16 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 50 54 49 37 35 19 13 13 26 31 45 200 MB DIV 10 14 28 52 18 -7 -7 0 1 -8 0 -5 -21 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 2 2 7 -1 4 -3 4 6 10 -2 LAND (KM) 667 621 587 564 543 541 536 668 908 1210 1598 1961 3047 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.1 26.0 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.4 30.8 30.4 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 151.0 151.8 152.6 153.4 155.5 158.1 160.9 163.9 167.6 172.5 177.1 180.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 11 14 14 15 19 22 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -11. -23. -38. -51. -55. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. -1. -7. -16. -27. -34. -33. -34. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.6 150.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 334.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##