* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 74 69 63 55 48 41 37 29 26 22 19 V (KT) LAND 85 79 74 69 63 55 48 41 37 29 26 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 73 67 62 54 46 40 35 30 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 3 5 6 7 12 13 17 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 0 3 4 5 3 0 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 162 183 213 198 222 229 239 249 253 254 254 255 259 SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 112 111 108 104 104 109 112 114 116 120 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 54 53 52 52 48 48 42 40 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 21 21 20 19 19 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 66 78 64 80 78 69 71 43 48 32 31 200 MB DIV -4 -6 17 28 22 27 9 -8 -1 -21 -14 -27 -36 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 6 3 5 1 8 2 1 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1618 1689 1763 1833 1906 2077 2031 1789 1548 1298 1036 798 573 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.0 19.5 19.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.9 128.9 129.9 130.9 133.1 135.4 137.7 140.0 142.4 144.9 147.2 149.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -11. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -22. -30. -37. -44. -48. -56. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.2 126.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 585.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##