* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 37 32 28 25 24 22 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 33 36 41 45 45 45 48 42 16 14 26 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 0 -5 -2 -3 0 0 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 252 257 257 252 252 252 247 252 250 30 19 12 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.0 23.3 22.6 23.0 23.8 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 113 113 115 114 104 97 91 97 105 115 114 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -56.1 -55.8 -56.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 36 36 37 39 43 45 48 47 45 41 39 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 18 16 15 14 14 16 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 57 52 45 39 27 17 1 7 3 8 25 200 MB DIV 19 32 46 21 1 -14 4 -2 -6 -29 -10 0 -34 700-850 TADV 4 5 1 3 5 -1 1 1 3 5 0 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 612 567 544 534 537 560 614 813 1120 1511 1912 2247 2792 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.3 26.4 27.7 29.3 31.0 32.0 31.9 31.3 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.7 152.4 153.1 153.9 156.0 158.7 161.6 165.1 170.2 175.6 179.9 182.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 16 20 23 22 14 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -12. -25. -41. -50. -53. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 13. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 5. 1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -30. -32. -39. -47. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.7 150.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 327.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##