* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 64 59 53 46 39 34 30 27 23 21 V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 64 59 53 46 39 34 30 27 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 63 58 51 45 39 35 31 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 5 5 6 9 10 15 14 18 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 5 1 6 0 1 0 6 2 SHEAR DIR 198 197 186 201 207 196 230 235 241 244 246 255 264 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.3 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 111 108 106 102 107 111 114 115 118 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 51 49 50 47 47 44 40 38 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 21 20 22 20 18 17 17 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 54 68 82 70 74 90 73 79 51 50 44 43 32 200 MB DIV -2 12 27 22 20 13 -4 -6 -15 -25 -13 -47 -25 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 1 2 3 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1681 1751 1824 1902 1984 2157 1904 1653 1413 1151 902 646 401 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.1 19.8 19.2 18.7 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.8 129.8 130.9 132.0 134.2 136.6 139.0 141.3 143.8 146.2 148.7 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -27. -34. -41. -46. -50. -53. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.3 127.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 564.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##