* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 29 25 23 21 20 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 36 40 44 43 43 47 52 44 20 13 36 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -5 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 251 257 258 254 251 257 244 250 246 251 44 29 12 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.5 22.9 23.4 24.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 117 117 113 104 97 90 96 100 104 97 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 -56.5 -56.2 -55.9 -55.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 34 36 37 40 42 45 47 50 49 43 40 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 18 16 16 15 14 13 16 19 19 15 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 53 47 40 35 22 10 -7 -10 -8 -4 12 200 MB DIV 36 36 23 -6 -7 -10 3 10 0 -8 -3 -35 -48 700-850 TADV 5 -2 2 4 3 0 8 2 8 12 0 -11 -20 LAND (KM) 544 492 468 454 466 494 623 882 1228 1662 2068 2749 2549 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.1 26.3 27.8 29.6 31.5 32.8 32.9 32.7 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.9 152.8 153.6 154.4 155.3 157.4 160.0 162.8 166.3 171.5 176.8 180.7 183.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 10 13 15 16 20 24 19 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -25. -42. -53. -56. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -2. 1. 2. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -25. -34. -39. -41. -53. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.9 151.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 330.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 76.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##