* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 64 61 56 47 42 36 30 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 64 61 56 47 42 36 30 25 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 61 58 51 44 39 35 31 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 5 5 6 9 13 14 14 18 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -2 2 3 4 3 1 4 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 206 161 154 193 187 224 229 232 248 249 256 258 275 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 108 106 105 110 115 115 115 120 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 52 52 53 48 48 42 40 38 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 20 21 22 19 19 17 16 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 73 64 66 76 80 67 81 55 54 42 42 25 200 MB DIV 9 12 14 18 31 1 -2 12 -16 -17 -29 -32 -34 700-850 TADV 6 7 3 4 6 2 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1745 1817 1891 1982 2076 2054 1811 1559 1308 1069 846 629 423 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.6 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.6 130.5 131.7 132.9 135.2 137.5 139.9 142.3 144.6 146.8 149.0 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -28. -33. -39. -45. -50. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 501.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##