* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 34 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 34 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 29 26 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 44 45 39 41 45 47 51 49 28 9 20 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 -1 1 1 -1 0 -3 -5 0 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 259 259 255 252 250 252 244 249 248 243 189 58 9 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.3 24.6 24.2 23.4 22.6 22.8 22.8 21.8 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 118 117 116 110 106 98 91 93 93 83 65 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -55.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -54.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 36 39 40 42 45 50 48 47 46 45 42 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 14 14 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 39 40 37 38 20 18 3 -17 -35 -81 -12 200 MB DIV 15 3 -21 -7 -6 15 8 22 -19 -22 -35 -30 19 700-850 TADV 1 7 8 1 0 0 -1 0 2 12 11 4 -31 LAND (KM) 462 411 400 400 415 467 656 923 1278 1684 2064 2530 2115 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.3 26.4 27.9 29.6 31.5 33.0 34.2 35.4 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 153.0 154.1 155.0 156.0 156.9 159.0 161.3 163.8 167.2 171.6 175.7 180.1 185.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 13 16 19 19 18 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -13. -27. -44. -57. -60. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -6. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -15. -25. -38. -46. -50. -57. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.9 153.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 309.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##