* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 64 60 51 43 35 28 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 64 60 51 43 35 28 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 62 58 50 44 38 33 30 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 6 6 10 9 16 16 19 17 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 2 3 2 5 -1 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 120 140 185 183 177 230 232 250 259 266 263 265 280 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 108 106 104 109 113 116 116 118 123 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 51 51 48 46 41 38 37 37 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 22 21 20 17 16 15 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 65 71 83 74 83 66 49 45 49 47 52 200 MB DIV 5 16 21 26 18 -6 9 -15 -36 -24 -20 -15 -33 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 5 5 0 3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1829 1910 1993 2088 2149 1906 1664 1424 1174 936 702 508 359 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.3 18.9 18.5 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.8 131.9 133.1 134.3 136.6 138.9 141.2 143.6 145.9 148.2 150.2 151.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -32. -40. -47. -52. -56. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.4 129.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 521.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##