* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 37 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 38 37 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 30 28 26 25 24 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 45 43 42 41 43 45 46 38 7 27 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 0 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 260 256 257 257 256 243 246 243 242 185 47 22 356 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.2 23.8 24.0 24.4 23.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 119 117 116 116 107 104 106 110 99 76 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.2 -54.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 38 40 42 43 45 48 49 48 49 42 44 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 14 15 17 15 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 34 38 38 24 16 17 0 -17 -22 -45 28 200 MB DIV 0 -26 -18 -18 -5 14 24 8 -3 -8 -55 -20 25 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 -2 0 6 1 11 10 19 3 -28 -4 LAND (KM) 381 348 313 302 302 462 741 1075 1495 1947 2323 2440 2079 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.9 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.7 33.1 33.7 34.5 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.8 156.8 157.9 158.9 161.2 163.6 166.4 170.3 175.1 179.4 183.4 186.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 13 14 17 21 20 18 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -13. -26. -41. -48. -53. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 9. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 0. 2. 0. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -29. -31. -42. -59. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.0 154.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 300.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 66.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##