* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 49 45 38 30 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 49 45 38 30 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 49 45 40 34 30 27 25 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 7 10 10 12 15 15 15 18 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 2 1 4 2 0 0 -1 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 122 178 188 189 209 233 241 255 257 255 254 271 281 SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 105 105 104 108 114 120 122 125 129 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 52 47 46 43 40 37 39 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 21 21 19 17 17 15 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 65 73 74 77 72 53 49 42 52 48 49 200 MB DIV 20 29 21 7 12 6 17 -20 -11 -19 -12 -15 -18 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 5 2 3 3 0 0 0 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1893 1980 2070 2158 2052 1810 1580 1339 1100 864 611 424 289 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.0 19.8 19.3 18.8 18.4 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.8 132.9 134.0 135.2 137.5 139.7 142.0 144.3 146.6 149.1 151.0 152.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -9. -11. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -27. -35. -42. -44. -49. -50. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.6 130.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 433.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##