* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 55 50 46 39 32 27 23 22 21 19 20 V (KT) LAND 65 60 55 50 46 39 32 27 23 22 21 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 65 60 56 51 48 41 35 31 28 27 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 9 10 10 13 14 14 14 14 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 1 5 1 0 0 2 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 188 195 193 203 207 218 240 253 250 241 252 256 273 SST (C) 24.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.6 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 105 103 103 103 104 109 118 120 123 126 128 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 52 48 47 43 40 38 38 38 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 21 20 18 17 16 17 17 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 71 68 72 77 60 48 46 55 50 52 37 200 MB DIV 28 23 7 12 13 4 -8 -21 -4 -16 -21 -33 -15 700-850 TADV 6 9 5 1 3 3 1 0 0 -2 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1958 2038 2120 2094 1977 1726 1496 1245 995 749 534 370 270 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.3 18.8 18.6 18.6 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.6 133.7 134.8 135.9 138.3 140.5 142.9 145.3 147.7 149.8 151.4 152.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 14 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -19. -26. -33. -38. -42. -43. -44. -46. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.8 131.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 446.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##