* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 38 39 39 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 38 38 39 39 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 37 35 35 34 33 31 28 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 38 40 41 39 37 29 3 28 48 56 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -5 -9 -8 0 SHEAR DIR 258 261 253 243 238 237 231 232 177 21 16 16 24 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 24.6 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.2 22.8 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 123 123 123 111 107 105 108 105 92 65 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.5 -55.9 -56.1 -55.6 -54.9 -54.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 38 39 41 45 45 48 48 52 48 43 41 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 15 16 16 14 10 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 44 44 35 31 27 19 -8 -21 -52 -59 -16 200 MB DIV -18 -16 -8 6 14 29 13 -5 6 -36 -65 -38 8 700-850 TADV 2 -1 1 5 10 3 13 19 13 -2 -15 0 -60 LAND (KM) 258 212 233 314 436 703 1028 1415 1859 2220 2609 2362 1955 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.5 25.0 26.5 28.6 30.8 32.8 33.6 33.8 35.0 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 157.6 159.1 160.3 161.4 162.6 164.7 167.0 170.1 174.2 178.2 181.4 184.0 187.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 13 16 20 19 15 12 15 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -21. -29. -36. -46. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -5. -10. -20. -36. -54. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.0 157.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 299.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##