* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 58 55 49 43 37 33 30 26 24 21 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 58 55 49 43 37 33 30 26 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 57 54 47 42 38 36 35 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 10 8 11 13 15 14 14 15 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 -2 0 5 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 193 165 193 209 203 230 254 259 255 261 280 275 273 SST (C) 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.9 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 104 105 106 112 120 122 124 127 127 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 48 47 47 42 39 37 38 39 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 20 19 17 16 15 16 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 58 69 62 62 67 66 64 49 42 51 47 40 30 200 MB DIV 24 3 5 4 7 16 -12 -13 -11 -6 -28 -17 1 700-850 TADV 8 5 2 3 4 4 2 2 1 0 1 2 7 LAND (KM) 2052 2138 2084 1967 1851 1621 1371 1131 892 665 447 298 199 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.1 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.8 134.9 136.0 137.1 139.3 141.7 144.0 146.3 148.5 150.6 152.0 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 14 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -39. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.0 132.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 460.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##