* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 39 40 42 40 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 39 40 42 40 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 34 33 31 28 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 40 40 43 43 43 41 36 15 8 24 29 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 2 8 3 -1 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 248 239 237 238 236 230 162 30 17 353 292 290 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.4 23.9 23.6 22.7 20.1 16.0 12.1 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 122 122 119 105 104 94 66 64 65 65 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.4 -56.2 -56.3 -55.9 -55.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 -0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 44 45 46 51 49 46 39 51 52 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 48 42 36 32 17 -28 -80 -70 -29 -37 -83 200 MB DIV -8 -5 4 9 24 35 -3 -10 -34 -19 -7 85 52 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 9 6 10 12 27 8 -14 -6 -15 7 LAND (KM) 185 166 229 327 446 755 1172 1724 2295 2175 1797 1348 950 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.7 24.0 24.5 25.3 27.5 30.4 33.7 36.3 37.9 39.4 42.6 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.7 160.7 161.6 162.4 164.3 167.0 171.4 176.9 182.5 187.1 190.3 190.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 12 16 21 27 25 21 19 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -20. -28. -37. -45. -49. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -10. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 0. -6. -16. -35. -51. -62. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.7 158.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 286.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##