* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 53 45 40 36 32 29 26 26 24 V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 53 45 40 36 32 29 26 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 57 53 47 42 39 37 35 33 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 6 8 9 12 13 10 13 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 164 204 220 214 219 244 247 256 257 276 276 279 255 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.5 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 107 108 117 119 120 124 127 127 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 47 47 43 41 37 37 41 41 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 16 16 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 64 68 71 60 58 44 47 45 34 19 14 200 MB DIV 10 2 1 8 -1 4 -22 -6 -31 -33 -18 -5 -1 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 4 5 1 3 4 0 0 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 2144 2079 1968 1862 1757 1517 1308 1089 849 609 393 262 236 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 19.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 133.9 135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 140.3 142.3 144.4 146.7 149.0 151.1 152.3 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 12 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -39. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.3 133.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 467.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 15.8% 12.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.3% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##