* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 49 45 39 35 33 30 27 28 28 26 V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 49 45 39 35 33 30 27 28 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 54 50 47 42 39 37 35 33 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 9 11 10 13 11 9 8 11 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 2 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 203 225 222 217 237 250 249 275 273 266 261 224 222 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 106 109 112 119 121 123 124 126 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 46 46 42 40 36 38 40 41 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 17 16 17 17 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 64 69 64 60 47 44 46 34 20 10 8 200 MB DIV -8 -2 1 5 17 -13 -14 -26 -20 -20 14 32 24 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 1 1 3 3 2 0 2 5 9 LAND (KM) 2083 1967 1851 1736 1621 1392 1141 911 692 503 346 252 232 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.2 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 141.5 143.9 146.1 148.2 150.0 151.5 152.5 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -32. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.7 134.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.06 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 432.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.29 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.8% 11.4% 8.9% 5.5% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 3.8% 3.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##