* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 41 46 46 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 37 41 46 46 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 42 46 44 41 37 31 13 17 38 49 47 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 0 -4 -8 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 234 232 231 223 219 181 67 24 3 352 338 341 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.6 24.5 23.8 23.5 21.2 18.8 15.6 14.0 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 124 121 110 105 103 78 64 62 61 60 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.3 -56.2 -56.9 -56.4 -55.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 47 49 51 53 45 43 41 41 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 15 17 17 11 6 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 36 40 37 34 -1 -42 -84 -45 -52 -116 -198 200 MB DIV 9 9 8 33 56 -1 0 -16 -24 -48 15 30 32 700-850 TADV 6 11 7 6 11 17 31 13 -26 -18 -18 0 0 LAND (KM) 278 406 531 658 789 1109 1553 2111 2319 1967 1662 1410 1295 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.3 28.8 31.9 35.1 37.0 38.1 39.7 41.6 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 161.5 162.9 164.1 165.1 166.0 167.9 170.9 175.5 181.3 186.1 189.3 190.9 190.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 12 13 17 23 26 23 17 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -14. -27. -43. -57. -63. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 5. -3. -9. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 11. 1. -22. -46. -69. -80. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 161.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##