* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 42 39 34 31 25 23 21 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 42 39 34 31 25 23 21 22 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 41 37 34 32 30 28 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 10 12 13 11 9 8 10 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 220 229 231 258 260 244 243 250 268 247 264 221 224 SST (C) 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 107 110 113 117 120 123 123 125 125 125 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 47 45 43 39 39 41 41 41 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 17 17 16 15 15 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 68 67 65 58 48 41 39 30 13 10 23 200 MB DIV -6 2 2 21 11 -29 -22 -26 -35 -14 16 17 13 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 2 1 4 4 0 -1 1 3 5 9 LAND (KM) 1967 1852 1737 1622 1507 1277 1027 807 607 450 316 245 269 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 140.4 142.6 145.0 147.1 149.0 150.5 151.8 152.9 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 6 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -16. -21. -24. -30. -32. -34. -33. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.9 136.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.14 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 393.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.88 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##