* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 38 41 46 44 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 38 41 46 44 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 31 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 47 44 40 35 32 10 29 39 39 30 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 -2 3 2 -2 -6 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 233 234 233 229 231 241 157 20 356 331 302 322 325 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.1 23.8 23.6 21.4 17.4 12.5 10.6 9.1 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 122 117 105 104 81 64 63 65 67 69 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 -56.0 -56.4 -55.2 -54.3 -53.5 -54.0 -55.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 42 47 49 48 52 44 45 52 51 48 51 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 40 34 32 5 -50 -91 -50 -64 -120 -121 -48 200 MB DIV 2 11 36 52 32 -2 -1 -19 -9 -7 -25 -11 11 700-850 TADV 12 9 7 10 14 21 21 2 -20 10 6 32 4 LAND (KM) 338 451 578 718 888 1319 1909 2479 1947 1582 1369 1572 1181 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 25.4 26.4 27.8 31.1 34.8 37.6 39.5 42.2 45.5 47.3 46.4 LONG(DEG W) 162.1 163.2 164.1 165.0 165.9 168.4 172.9 179.0 184.1 186.5 185.1 178.3 168.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 17 24 28 26 18 16 21 30 37 HEAT CONTENT 1 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -14. -28. -44. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -9. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 3. 6. 11. 9. -5. -26. -47. -58. -63. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.2 162.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 80.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##