* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 45 42 37 35 31 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 45 42 37 35 31 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 47 45 41 39 36 34 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 11 15 11 13 8 10 10 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 3 3 4 1 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 233 249 257 254 248 228 268 278 261 235 234 214 SST (C) 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 112 118 118 121 123 125 126 125 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 41 39 36 37 40 39 40 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 16 17 16 15 15 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 61 64 62 51 38 39 35 20 10 13 42 200 MB DIV -5 -3 8 7 -7 -22 -23 -19 -30 8 10 -1 10 700-850 TADV 3 5 2 0 3 4 4 1 1 2 3 9 12 LAND (KM) 1841 1721 1601 1480 1360 1130 890 671 482 335 260 228 249 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.4 139.5 140.7 141.8 144.0 146.3 148.4 150.2 151.6 152.5 153.4 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 6 6 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -13. -18. -20. -24. -27. -27. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 137.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.17 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 424.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.30 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.1% 8.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##