* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 40 43 48 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 40 43 48 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 52 49 45 42 42 24 9 22 28 29 31 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 1 0 -1 4 1 0 -6 -1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 235 231 226 225 226 212 112 16 351 329 300 296 309 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.7 23.3 20.0 15.3 11.2 9.1 8.9 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 124 120 115 105 101 66 64 64 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -55.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -55.4 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 45 48 47 49 52 44 43 48 50 46 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 14 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 44 38 30 -17 -65 -120 -83 -105 -123 -104 -23 200 MB DIV 17 35 60 66 37 15 2 -38 -21 18 -15 2 -1 700-850 TADV 10 6 12 15 13 32 14 -13 4 -16 31 0 16 LAND (KM) 447 565 675 809 947 1414 2046 2432 1803 1431 1345 1199 1173 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.6 27.9 31.7 35.8 38.5 40.9 44.2 47.8 48.2 45.4 LONG(DEG W) 163.4 164.5 165.3 166.0 166.6 169.1 173.8 179.9 184.4 186.0 182.1 172.6 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 14 17 25 29 25 19 19 27 34 33 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -26. -39. -49. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -3. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 7. -10. -30. -48. -58. -65. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 163.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##