* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 48 45 39 34 30 28 24 23 20 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 48 45 39 34 30 28 24 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 48 45 43 39 37 34 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 10 13 13 12 14 11 14 17 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 6 3 5 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 236 249 250 250 244 246 251 285 289 264 232 230 221 SST (C) 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 118 120 121 122 124 126 125 124 125 123 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 45 46 43 42 41 37 35 38 39 41 43 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 17 18 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 62 65 54 44 39 37 32 12 13 16 21 200 MB DIV -7 4 11 -2 -31 -18 -19 -33 -26 11 1 3 5 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 3 4 2 1 0 1 4 3 10 11 LAND (KM) 1726 1611 1496 1371 1246 1016 788 579 419 315 278 258 252 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.4 140.5 141.7 142.9 145.1 147.3 149.3 150.8 151.8 152.4 153.3 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 6 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 6 6 4 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -31. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 138.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.20 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 413.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.32 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 18.2% 12.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.2% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##