* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 47 50 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 47 50 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 43 45 42 38 13 18 28 38 28 25 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -5 -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 232 224 218 214 210 138 45 21 11 355 321 293 302 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.0 23.9 23.5 20.4 15.8 11.7 9.5 10.7 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 118 115 106 103 70 64 64 67 69 68 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.4 -55.7 -56.4 -56.3 -55.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -55.4 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 48 52 52 48 42 48 50 51 59 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 14 12 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 51 39 35 -7 -59 -134 -131 -120 -124 -53 48 200 MB DIV 31 63 72 35 25 44 1 -44 -39 7 -7 12 1 700-850 TADV 6 10 17 13 24 9 2 -12 0 -13 37 25 24 LAND (KM) 635 782 897 1009 1135 1502 2048 2438 1839 1507 1663 1267 1345 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.6 27.9 31.3 35.3 38.3 40.9 44.2 46.7 46.0 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 165.4 166.8 167.7 168.4 169.0 170.8 174.4 179.6 183.7 184.6 179.1 169.5 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 13 15 23 26 23 18 18 29 35 31 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -13. -27. -41. -50. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 5. -13. -37. -53. -64. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.5 165.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 241.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##