* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 43 41 37 33 29 27 26 26 24 23 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 43 41 37 33 29 27 26 26 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 43 42 40 37 35 32 31 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 9 15 20 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -1 2 5 3 3 0 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 255 261 256 247 245 255 275 286 273 232 239 219 239 SST (C) 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 119 121 122 122 124 126 126 125 125 125 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 41 41 36 38 41 42 44 44 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 66 61 52 35 38 33 19 11 9 16 18 200 MB DIV 0 11 -2 -27 -18 -20 11 -35 -8 17 -6 3 -6 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 3 3 4 2 1 3 3 4 11 19 LAND (KM) 1601 1481 1361 1241 1121 882 655 466 338 262 231 277 376 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.7 141.8 143.0 144.1 146.4 148.6 150.4 151.6 152.3 152.8 153.5 154.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 8 7 6 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 139.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.28 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 374.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.37 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.2% 8.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##