* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 45 49 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 45 49 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 34 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 46 43 38 28 11 19 28 35 24 13 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 0 -3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 225 218 211 205 195 97 46 32 31 20 350 301 293 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 24.1 23.7 21.6 17.0 11.9 11.0 10.8 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 123 120 107 104 82 64 63 64 68 68 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 -56.9 -55.9 -54.8 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 49 51 52 50 46 45 47 42 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 14 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 53 44 36 8 -43 -92 -131 -107 -143 -120 -69 200 MB DIV 58 84 55 38 30 10 -1 -44 -31 -13 -16 0 -3 700-850 TADV 8 16 14 20 27 5 -6 2 -10 -11 -2 -7 0 LAND (KM) 772 917 1028 1120 1237 1550 2019 2385 1909 1535 1429 1703 1637 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.7 25.4 26.3 27.6 30.9 34.3 37.0 39.5 42.4 45.1 45.0 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 166.9 168.3 169.2 169.8 170.4 171.8 175.0 180.0 184.8 187.1 184.6 177.2 169.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 12 15 19 24 24 20 16 20 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -11. -24. -35. -41. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -5. -10. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 5. -9. -31. -45. -54. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 166.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##