* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 47 50 43 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 47 50 43 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 37 36 35 31 26 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 43 34 24 15 9 11 11 29 29 24 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -4 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 220 214 205 203 203 6 359 33 38 20 11 349 298 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.1 24.8 24.1 23.0 19.5 13.7 10.9 12.7 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 125 113 107 97 65 63 62 65 67 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.5 -55.7 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -57.1 -56.2 -54.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 46 47 48 51 48 41 45 42 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 11 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 61 53 40 31 15 -19 -63 -131 -133 -169 -154 -90 200 MB DIV 80 32 40 49 37 7 -6 -37 -32 -39 -8 -20 10 700-850 TADV 12 16 18 23 16 13 -5 8 -26 4 -2 7 -15 LAND (KM) 947 1092 1204 1290 1366 1581 1956 2529 2026 1600 1415 1612 1881 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.7 25.2 26.1 27.1 29.7 32.5 35.3 37.9 40.9 43.3 43.7 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 168.7 170.1 171.1 171.7 172.1 173.1 175.7 180.3 185.3 188.3 187.9 183.4 176.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 10 12 15 21 25 22 15 12 22 30 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 867 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -25. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 8. -1. -15. -28. -39. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 168.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 257.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##